Completed · October 2025
Monte Carlo CDO Tranche & Credit Risk Model
A simulation framework for correlated defaults, tranche cash-flow waterfalls, expected losses, and risk-adjusted returns across a speculative-grade bond portfolio.
Monte CarloStructured CreditCholeskyRisk ModelingPython
How does correlated default risk propagate differently through senior, mezzanine, and equity tranches?
APPROACH
01
Simulated 10,000 correlated default-time paths using Cholesky decomposition.
02
Modeled cash-flow waterfalls and loss allocation across the capital structure.
03
Estimated tranche default probabilities, expected losses, and return on equity.
04
Compared how correlation and attachment points reshape tail risk and investor outcomes.